講演者：Dr. Liu Chi Yen
題目：How to escape triviality results?
“Adams’ thesis” is often interpreted as the claim that the subjective probability of an indicative conditional A→B equals the corresponding conditional probability P(B|A). Many scholars show that this interpretation will be attacked by triviality results, so they reject Adams’ thesis. I will show what triviality results are and what they have in common. Then I try to give another interpretation of Adams’s thesis to escape triviality results. First, I propose a 3-valued semantics for indicative conditionals and claim that the probability of A→B is equal to probability of A∧B. Second, from the way we bet on indicative conditionals, I distinguish the probability of an indicative conditional from the assertability of an indicative conditional, and interpreted Adams’ thesis as:
The assertability of a simple indicative conditional p→q equals the corresponding conditional probability P(q|p), provided P (p) > 0.
Finally, I will argue that this interpretation can escape all triviality results on the market.