Uncertainty and Multi-agent Decisions with Applications to Conservation Management
8–10 April, 2015

Workshop at the University of Kyoto
Participants:
Mark Burgman (University of Melbourne)
Jeremy Butterfield (University of Cambridge)
Mark Colyvan (University of Sydney)
Yasuo Deguchi (University of Kyoto)
Aidan Lyon (University of Maryland)
Perhaps others from the University of Kyoto (all are welcome)

Abstract: Conservation management and policy decisions are often made while operating under massive uncertainty. Moreover, such decisions typically involve multiple stakeholders with various opinions about the values associated with the potential outcomes and the probabilities of those outcomes. Standard decision theory and probability theory have their limitations in dealing with such decisions. In this workshop we will explore other options such as, multi-agent decision making, information markets, consensus models, advances in the Delphi method, probability aggregation techniques, and vague probabilities. We will also consider the treatment of uncertainty from other branches of science, such as physics, to see if new insights can be gained from such cross-disciplinary investigations. The focus of the workshop will be on collaborations aimed at tacklingspecific problems and advancing specific techniques in this area, rather than the presentation of completed work. Both theoretical work and applications to conservation biology will be entertained.

Tentative Schedule
Note: The workshop will be deliberately kept informal; the schedule below is both tentative and flexible.

Day 1: Wednesday 8th April

Overview: Uncertainty and Multi-agent Decisions in Conservation Management
Mark Burgman (University of Melbourne)
1 hour

Questions and Discussion
30 minutes

Speed Introductory Talks by all participants (10–15 minutes each) aimed at highlighting each participant’s relevant expertise.
[N.B. Kyoto Students who wish to attend the workshop are welcome to present in this section but may also choose to opt out and simply observe.]

Discussion Session
In this session we will identify some specific problems we would like to tackle and which we feel we can make progress on.

Day 2: Thursday 9th April
Break up into collaborative research groups working on the problems identified at the end of Day 1.

Day 3: Friday 10 April
Collaborative research groups continue working on the problems identified at the end of Day 1.
At the end of Day 3 each group will report their progress to the whole workshop.